LA NOTA ECONÓMICA: Nueva crisis política en Guatemala genera incertidumbre

Los señalamientos realizados ayer por la Comisión Internacional contra la Impunidad (Cicig) y el Ministerio Público contra el presidente Otto Pérez Molina y la ex vicepresidenta Roxana Baldetti de dirigir la estructura conocida como La Línea, tendrá repercusiones en el ámbito de negocios para Guatemala.

Los impactos, según expertos en el tema, serán a corto y mediano plazo en las áreas de atracción de flujos de inversión, clima de negocios, baja recaudación tributaria, imagen del país en el extranjero y la evaluación riesgo país.

Por Urías Gamarro y Byron Dardón
El 16 de abril último, la Cicig y el MP revelaron la existencia de una red paralela en el servicio aduanero que defraudó al fisco.

Especialistas consultados por Prensa Libre aseguran que esta coyuntura puede reflejar condiciones negativas por los casos de corrupción que involucran al mandatario, pero a la vez se están enviando las señales de que se aclara la situación, cumplimiento de la ley y estado de Derecho, garantías que miden los agentes económicos.

En los últimos 128 días, la Cicig y el MP han sacado a luz pública varios casos de corrupción que involucran a varios exfuncionarios de la administración pública.

Calificación

David Casasola, analista del Centro de Investigaciones Económicas Nacionales (Cien), expuso que en la evaluación que llevan a cabo las agencias de calificación de riesgo país, el ambiente político y jurídico es uno de los más de cien parámetros que auditan.

“A corto y mediano plazo la calificación puede tener una influencia negativa, pero así como se van aclarando los procesos puede ser que se revierta”, dijo.

2,100 millones

  • de quetzales es la brecha fiscal reportada por la SAT a julio último.

Advirtió de que estos señalamientos surgen a escasas tres semanas para que se realicen las elecciones generales lo que agrava el “clima de incertidumbre”.

El 27 de mayo último, la firma Moody’s cambió de estable a negativa la perspectiva para Guatemala, pero mantuvo el punteo en Ba1, mientras la agencia Fitch mantuvo la calificación en BB el pasado 19 de junio.

Casasola afirmó que detrás de estos acontecimientos políticos, hay otros aspectos de fondo que son necesarios tratar para mantener las calificaciones.

Clima de inversión

Luis David, director de Invest in Guatemala —oficina de inversión—, explicó que a corto plazo tendrá repercusión en la imagen de Guatemala.

“Las noticias que se generen por estos casos son titulares que sí tendrán una repercusión”, aseguró, y su impacto será a corto plazo.

  • “Habrá una resistencia de los contribuyentes con sus obligaciones al conocer que el presidente está involucrado en el caso de defraudación”.
  • Juan Carlos Paredes, consultor fiscal.

Explicó que habrá sectores sensibles que podrían tener un impacto inmediato, pero en relación con otros sectores de inversión, las proyecciones se mantendrán.

“Consideramos que se envía un mensaje de que en Guatemala se realizan bien las cosas y que se cumple la ley, y eso también es valorado por los capitalistas”, subrayó.

Al respecto, José Carlos Sanabria, analista político de la Asociación de Investigación y Estudios Sociales (Asíes), opinó que la captura de la ex vicepresidenta Baldetti y el antejuicio solicitado en contra del presidente Pérez Molina deja un mensaje positivo, en el cual se evidencia que las instituciones de justicia están funcionando.

“La calificación crediticia podría mejorar si se fortalece la recaudación y el progreso en los indicadores de gobernanza. En contraste, la calificación podría reducirse, si se produce una escalada de los problemas políticos y sociales que ponga en riesgo la estabilidad macroeconómica o un deterioro de las cuentas fiscales”.

“Esto impacta en los criterios que evalúan los inversores extranjeros, no solo para los que están interesados en tener una estabilidad y un marco normativo que les permita desarrollar sus actividades de manera predecible”, sostuvo.Sanabria anticipó que la imagen del país se verá de nuevo deteriorada con el involucramiento de altos funcionarios.

Economía estable

Ignacio Lejárraga, presidente de la Cámara de Finanzas, expuso que aunque es un caso que surge por la defraudación en la Superintendencia de Administración Tributaria (SAT), los indicadores macroeconómicos se han mantenido estables y la mayor incertidumbre por los agentes está en el desarrollo de las elecciones.

“La producción nacional responde como se esperaba; de manera positiva. Hay un leve aplazo de inversión, pero responde al evento electoral”, aseguró.

Lejárraga comentó que los agentes económicos mantendrán las expectativas de que en Guatemala se está cumpliendo con la ley.

“Es un purga la que se está llevando a cabo y eso puede tener un impacto positivo”, afirmó.

Para este año se proyecta que la economía tenga una tasa de crecimiento de entre 3.6% al 4.2%.

A junio último, el Índice Mensual de la Actividad Económica registró un comportamiento de 3.7%.

Moral tributaria

Juan Carlos Paredes, consultor fiscal, opinó que uno de los mayores impactos será la baja moral tributaria de los contribuyentes al conocer que el presidente Pérez Molina y la exvicepresidenta están involucrados en la red de defraudación.

Moody’s: 27 de mayo

  • “La decisión de Moody’s de cambiar la perspectiva de las calificaciones de Guatemala se debe a que la actual crisis política se ha agravado rápidamente, detonada por los escándalos de corrupción que involucran a servidores públicos de alto nivel y que ha ocasionado protestas generalizadas”.

“No se puede desmantelar toda la estructura tributaria por este caso. Los tributantes deben cumplir con sus obligaciones, pero sin duda habrá repercusiones negativas”, enfatizó.El especialista expresó que a pesar de esta situación, los contribuyentes deberán cumplir con el pago de impuestos porque si no se pone en riesgo el funcionamiento del aparato estatal.

Durante la gestión del presidente Pérez Molina, la SAT no alcanzó las metas de recaudación establecidas en el presupuesto, así como mantuvo una constante política de contención —recorte— del gasto público.

En el 2012, la brecha fue de Q1 mil millones, mientras que en el 2013 y 2014 el agujero fiscal superó los Q2 mil millones.

De enero a julio último, la SAT mantiene una brecha por Q2 mil 200 millones.

En esa entidad también hubo una alta rotación de las personas que dirigieron la SAT.

PRENSA LIBRE

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on “LA NOTA ECONÓMICA: Nueva crisis política en Guatemala genera incertidumbre
250 Comments on “LA NOTA ECONÓMICA: Nueva crisis política en Guatemala genera incertidumbre
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